Faktor turun naik harga emas

Kenaikan harga emas pada pasaran tempatan dan luar negara lazimnya dikaitkan dengan 3 faktor utama seperti di bawah, bagi mereka yang ingin memulakan pelaburan emas, anda bolehlah lihat bagaimana berikut boleh mengubah harga pasaran emas semasa.

Faktor Pertama ialah penyusutan nilai dolar Amerika. Apabila nilai dolar Amerika susut harga emas akan naik, apabila dolar Amerika stabil harga emas akan susut. Emas bertindak sebagai pelindung nilai menentang dolar Amerika. Pada masa ini dolar Amerika lemah dan menunjukkan tanda-tanda akan menjadi lebih lemah. Ada juga ura-ura negara Asia Barat dan China akan menggunakan mata wang lain selain dolar Amerika disebabkan kelemahan dolar Amerika ini. Walaupun peralihan kepada mata wang selain dolar Amerika (euro misalnya atau mata wang bentuk baru) bukan sesuatu yang boleh berlaku dengan segera, berita itu telah cukup untuk melonjakkan harga emas dunia.

Faktor kedua ialah harga emas akan naik selari dengan kadar inflasi. Apabila inflasi naik, harga emas akan naik selaras dengan inflasi. Dalam keadaan negara-negara di dunia termasuk kuasa-kuasa ekonomi besar menyuntik pakej rangsangan ekonomi dengan besar seperti AS$787 bilion pakej rangsangan Amerika Syarikat kesannya ialah peningkatan inflasi. Amerika hanya mengecap duitnya sesuka hati dan ini akan menyebabkan nilai duitnya akan turun.

Faktor ketiga ialah kenaikan harga petroleum akan menyebabkan harga emas naik selari dengan kenaikan kos penghasilan dan penghantaran barangan, jika harga petroleum jatuh. dijangka emas juga akan turun tetapi pada tahap minimum. Terdapat beberapa cara untuk melabur dalam bentuk emas dan diterangkan secara lengkap di dalam www.gold.org/value. Orang ramai boleh melabur secara langsung dengan membeli emas bulion (jongkong), syiling emas, dinar emas, atau secara tidak langsung melalui gold futures, options, waran atau sijil pelaburan. Salah satu cara paling popular dan cepat berkembang dalam sekuriti bursa di seluruh dunia yang dikenali dengan nama Gold ETF (Exchange Traded Fund). Antara bursa saham dunia yang menawarkan Gold ETF ialah di Australia, Amerika Syarikat, Perancis, Hong Kong, Jepun, Mexico, Afrika Selatan, Switzerland, Singapura, Turki dan United Kingdom. ETF ini dalam bentuk sekuriti dan disokong 100 peratus oleh emas secara fizikal. Pelaburan secara ini berkembang dengan pesat sehingga 38 peratus daripada pelaburan yang dikenal pasti terdiri daripada sekuriti bentuk ini. Di sini belum ada lagi Gold Emas ini diperdagangkan di bursa kita. Melihat pergolakan yang berlaku sekarang terutama sekali tergugatnya kedudukan Dolar Amerika ekoran krisis ekonomi yang berpunca di Amerika, daripada mereka dan merebak ke seluruh dunia. Orang ramai sudah tentu mencari sesuatu bentuk pelaburan yang lebih selamat daripada pergolakan harga.

Pada tahun 1971, emas tidak lagi terikat dengan Dolar Amerika dan diperdagangkan secara bebas. Pada 6 Oktober 2009 baru-baru ini, harga emas di pasaran emas dunia melonjak sebanyak AS$24.60 kepada AS$1,041.80 seauns sehari. Enam bulan dulu harga terendah emas ialah AS$868.70 dan setahun dulu harganya ialah AS$709.50 seauns. Dalam masa setahun harga emas naik sebanyak 46.8 peratus. Lima tahun dulu harga terendahnya ialah AS$412.10 iaitu kenaikan sebanyak 152.8 peratus. Secara purata seseorang yang melabur jangka panjang mendapat pulangan purata dalam masa lima tahun sebanyak 30.5 peratus. Rasanya pelaburan di pasaran saham sendiri tidak boleh memperolehi keuntungan sebanyak itu.

Tidak ramai yang sedar akan pulangan yang lumayan daripada pelaburan emas. Cara yang baik untuk melabur emas ialah dengan membeli syiling emas atau emas keping selain barang kemas. Untuk makluman, suatu auns bersamaan dengan 31.10 gram. Bagaimana pun harga jualan emas di institusi kewangan berbeza-beza kerana harga emas bukannya sesuatu yang terkawal. Banyak kos perkhidmatan seperti insurans diambil kira oleh institusi-institusi ini. Syiling dan emas keping ini boleh diperolehi di bank-bank seperti Maybank dan OUB. Ada juga yang menggunakan buku pas seperti Public Bank atau Maybanktetapi pelanggan tidak menyimpan dan melihat emas sebenarnya hanya jumlah dan harga semasa pembelian dimasukkan ke dalam buku pas.

3 thoughts on “Faktor turun naik harga emas”

  • the Fed dumped as much as 400 or even 500 tons of “paper gold” on the
    market — metals that it might not even have — as part of a naked short
    sale aimed at driving down the prices. Other analysts, especially among
    the establishment, pointed to the ECB chief’s recent suggestion that
    struggling European authorities in countries such as Cyprus would have
    to sell their precious metals to keep receiving bailouts.

    Gold
    prices plummeted from above $1,550 an ounce on April 11 to below $1,400
    by Tuesday, with April 15, seeing the biggest single-day drop in some
    three decades. Prices for silver witnessed similarly massive declines,
    dropping to below $24 from around $28 less than a week ago. Analysts
    referred to the plunges as a “blood bath” that triggered even more sell
    orders.

    However, all of the economic fundamentals that sent gold
    soaring from about $400 an ounce a decade ago to more than $1,900 an
    ounce — wild currency-printing binges by privately owned central banks such as the Fed,
    for example — remain in play. Indeed, monetary authorities in the West
    have actually expanded their unprecedented so-called quantitative easing
    (QE) programs in recent years amid a supposed effort to revive the
    economy.

    Economist Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, assistant treasury secretary during the Reagan administration and former editor of the Wall Street Journal,
    is one of many experts who argue that the recent collapse in gold and
    silver prices was carefully orchestrated by the Fed and a coalition of
    allied mega-banks. In a widely cited analysis of the recent plunge in
    precious metals entitled “Assault On Gold Update,” he said the U.S. central bank was “rigging all markets” — bond prices, interest rates, and of course, the bullion market.

    The
    purpose, Roberts argued, is to protect the value of the dollar while
    the Fed continues adding to the supply of fiat U.S. currency faster than
    demand increases. If the dollar’s exchange rate were to fall, prices
    would rise, the Fed would lose control over interest rates, the bond
    market would collapse, and turmoil would reign in the financial system,
    Roberts noted. So, the U.S. central bank had to act. According to
    Roberts and other experts, it did so by selling “paper” gold that may
    not even really exist — naked short selling, in other words.

    “Rapidly
    rising bullion prices were an indication of loss of confidence in the
    dollar and were signaling a drop in the dollar’s exchange rate,” Roberts
    explained. “The Fed used naked shorts in the paper gold market to
    offset the price effect of a rising demand for bullion possession. Short
    sales that drive down the price trigger stop-loss orders that
    automatically lead to individual sales of bullion holdings once their
    loss limits are reached.”

    Ex-Goldman Sachs employee and veteran London metals trader Andrew Maguire, who soared to prominence after blowing the whistle on the Fed’s manipulation of gold and silver prices, offered a stunning analysis of what happened in the bullion markets in recent days as well. In an interview with King World News,
    Maguire said that more than 500 tons of “paper gold” had been dumped on
    the market on April 12 — the day gold prices started dramatically
    tumbling.

    “It just amazes me how people concentrate on what’s
    happening in one paper market,” Maguire explained, adding that he
    expected a rebound in prices as shortages develop in the physical gold
    market amid massive central bank purchases out of countries like China,
    Russia, Brazil, and India. “I think we’ve reached a point of
    capitulation. I cannot see how the central bank buying cannot overwhelm
    all of these short sales, despite the leverage.”

    Former U.S.
    Treasury policy chief Roberts cited Maguire and agreed, pointing to
    “powerful” circumstantial evidence of Fed intervention in the gold
    market. However, despite dramatic central bank manipulation, the scam
    could be on the verge of coming apart at the seams, Roberts explained,
    citing strong signals that the Fed would not be able to come up with the
    physical supply on demand.

    “Unless the authorities have the
    actual metal with which to back up the short selling, they could be met
    with demands for deliveries,” Roberts noted, pointing to the Fed’s
    bizarre decision not to send Germany’s gold after it was formally
    requested. “Unable to cover the shorts with real metal, the scheme would
    be exposed.”

  • the Fed dumped as much as 400 or even 500 tons of “paper gold” on the
    market — metals that it might not even have — as part of a naked short
    sale aimed at driving down the prices. Other analysts, especially among
    the establishment, pointed to the ECB chief’s recent suggestion that
    struggling European authorities in countries such as Cyprus would have
    to sell their precious metals to keep receiving bailouts.

    Gold
    prices plummeted from above $1,550 an ounce on April 11 to below $1,400
    by Tuesday, with April 15, seeing the biggest single-day drop in some
    three decades. Prices for silver witnessed similarly massive declines,
    dropping to below $24 from around $28 less than a week ago. Analysts
    referred to the plunges as a “blood bath” that triggered even more sell
    orders.

    However, all of the economic fundamentals that sent gold
    soaring from about $400 an ounce a decade ago to more than $1,900 an
    ounce — wild currency-printing binges by privately owned central banks such as the Fed,
    for example — remain in play. Indeed, monetary authorities in the West
    have actually expanded their unprecedented so-called quantitative easing
    (QE) programs in recent years amid a supposed effort to revive the
    economy.

    Economist Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, assistant treasury secretary during the Reagan administration and former editor of the Wall Street Journal,
    is one of many experts who argue that the recent collapse in gold and
    silver prices was carefully orchestrated by the Fed and a coalition of
    allied mega-banks. In a widely cited analysis of the recent plunge in
    precious metals entitled “Assault On Gold Update,” he said the U.S. central bank was “rigging all markets” — bond prices, interest rates, and of course, the bullion market.

    The
    purpose, Roberts argued, is to protect the value of the dollar while
    the Fed continues adding to the supply of fiat U.S. currency faster than
    demand increases. If the dollar’s exchange rate were to fall, prices
    would rise, the Fed would lose control over interest rates, the bond
    market would collapse, and turmoil would reign in the financial system,
    Roberts noted. So, the U.S. central bank had to act. According to
    Roberts and other experts, it did so by selling “paper” gold that may
    not even really exist — naked short selling, in other words.

    “Rapidly
    rising bullion prices were an indication of loss of confidence in the
    dollar and were signaling a drop in the dollar’s exchange rate,” Roberts
    explained. “The Fed used naked shorts in the paper gold market to
    offset the price effect of a rising demand for bullion possession. Short
    sales that drive down the price trigger stop-loss orders that
    automatically lead to individual sales of bullion holdings once their
    loss limits are reached.”

    Ex-Goldman Sachs employee and veteran London metals trader Andrew Maguire, who soared to prominence after blowing the whistle on the Fed’s manipulation of gold and silver prices, offered a stunning analysis of what happened in the bullion markets in recent days as well. In an interview with King World News,
    Maguire said that more than 500 tons of “paper gold” had been dumped on
    the market on April 12 — the day gold prices started dramatically
    tumbling.

    “It just amazes me how people concentrate on what’s
    happening in one paper market,” Maguire explained, adding that he
    expected a rebound in prices as shortages develop in the physical gold
    market amid massive central bank purchases out of countries like China,
    Russia, Brazil, and India. “I think we’ve reached a point of
    capitulation. I cannot see how the central bank buying cannot overwhelm
    all of these short sales, despite the leverage.”

    Former U.S.
    Treasury policy chief Roberts cited Maguire and agreed, pointing to
    “powerful” circumstantial evidence of Fed intervention in the gold
    market. However, despite dramatic central bank manipulation, the scam
    could be on the verge of coming apart at the seams, Roberts explained,
    citing strong signals that the Fed would not be able to come up with the
    physical supply on demand.

    “Unless the authorities have the
    actual metal with which to back up the short selling, they could be met
    with demands for deliveries,” Roberts noted, pointing to the Fed’s
    bizarre decision not to send Germany’s gold after it was formally
    requested. “Unable to cover the shorts with real metal, the scheme would
    be exposed.”

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